This report, commissioned by the UK’s Food Standards Agency, aims to assess the most likely changes to the UK food system over the next five years resulting from climate change. It argues that although policies for net zero are aspirational, the near-term transition costs and experiences for stakeholders, particularly in food production, processing, and consumption, may be negative.
Publisher’s Summary
Climate change is having wide-ranging impacts that are already being felt in the food system. This report aims to assess the most likely changes to the UK food system over the next five years resulting from climate change, with a focus on the FSA’s remit. A rapid literature review, expert interviews, and analyses of relevant UK policy and programme documents were conducted to understand the complex driver landscape and potential and current impacts on the UK’s food system. The areas of the UK food system considered for this assessment were food producing, processing and manufacturing, distributing, storing, retailing, consuming, and disposing. Policies and environmental drivers relevant to these activity areas were also included in the analysis.
The impacts of climate change are demonstrable in the food system, with food production seeing the biggest consequences domestically and in international markets. Impacts related to extreme temperature events, flooding, drought, and soil erosion in particular are of great concern. Supporting infrastructure that distribution, storage, processing, retailing, and the consumers at large depend on is also impacted by extreme weather events, and there are likely to be food and product price increases because of supply chain variability. While uncertainties remain for the food sector and waste management at large in relation to consumption trend changes linked to climate change, all activities in the food system are subject to short-term shocks because of climate change related weather events.
The UK climate change policy landscape has become increasingly complex with multiple interconnecting programmes in adaptation, net zero, food, and environmental land management schemes. Taken together, all policies are aspirational and aim to positively drive transformational change for food system actors, but the near-term transition costs and experiences for stakeholders particularly in food production, processing, and consumption may be negative.
These changes could have major implications for the FSA given its broad strategy of food is safe, food is what it says it is and food is healthier and more sustainable.
Read more here. See also the TABLE explainer, An overview of food system challenges
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