Report: Evaluation of the livestock sector's contribution to EU greenhouse gas emissions

An EC commissioned report has just been published which calculates the livestock sector’s contribution to EU GHG emissions using the CAPRI model. 

Leip A., Weiss F., Wassenaar T., Perez I., Fellmann T., Loudjani P., Tubiello F., Grandgirard D., Monni S. and Biala K. (2010). Evaluation of the livestock sector's contribution to the EU greenhouse gas emissions (GGELS) -final report, European Commission, Joint Research Centre.

Key points

 
The GGELS study sought to quantify GHG  and NH₃ emissions from the livestock sector in the EU and project future emissions.  Calculations were undertaken using the CAPRI model.
 
The main results were as follows

• Total GHG fluxes of European livestock production including land use and land use change emissions amount to 661 Mt CO₂-eq. 191 Mt CO₂-eq (29%) are from beef production, 193 Mt CO₂-eq (29%) from cow milk production and 165 Mt CO₂-eq (25%) from pork production, while all other animal products together do not account for more than 111 Mt CO₂-eq (17%) of total emissions.
• 323 Mt CO₂-eq (49%) of total emissions arise from direct agricultural emissions, 136 Mt CO₂-eq (21%) from energy use (eg machinery), 11 Mt CO₂-eq (2%) from industrial processes (eg. fertiliser manufacture), 99 (15%) Mt CO₂-eq from land use  (CO₂ emissions from cultivation of organic soils and reduced carbon sequestration compared to natural grassland) and 91 Mt CO₂-eq  from land use change, mainly for feed production in Non-European countries.
• These results are associated with considerable uncertainty especially with respect to land use change and changes in soil carbon levels. For land use change, three scenarios were designed to span the range of possible emissions. Accordingly, emissions from land use change are given as between 54 Mt CO₂-eq and 283 Mt CO₂-eq
• The CAPRI model estimates for agricultural emissions (ie. on farm direct impacts) are 21% lower than those reported inofficial GHG inventories submitted to the UNFCCC.  This is largely due to different ways of calculating nitrous oxide emissions and methane.
• Ruminants generate the highest GHG emissions (22 kg CO₂-eq/kg meat for beef and 20 kg CO₂-eq/kg sheep and goat meat). Pork and poultry meat have a lower carbon footprint with 7.5 CO₂-eq/kg meat and 5 kg CO₂-eq/kg meat, respectively.  Eggs and milk from sheep and goat cause about 3 kg CO₂-eq/kg roduct, while cow milk has the lowest carbon footprint with 1.4 kg CO₂-eq/kg I (NB note that this is per litre of liquid milk – many LCAs calculate emissions from milk in terms of milk solids, so the figure is therefore higher).
• The countries with the lowest product emissions do not necessarily have similar production systems. So, the countries with the lowest emissions per kg of beef (Scenario II) are as diverse as Austria (14.2 kg CO₂-eq/kg) and the Netherlands (17.4 kg CO₂-eq/kg). While the Dutch systems are characterised by low methane and N₂O levels as a result of an efficient and industrialized production structure with strict environmental regulations, Austria compensates for higher methane emissions with lower emissions from land use and land use change (LULUC) indicating high self-sufficiency in feed production and a high share of grass in the diet. The selection of the land use change scenario, therefore, impacts strongly on the relative performance (in scenario III the Netherlands fall back to average). However, both countries are characterized by high meat yields.
• Emissions from major imported animal products were calculated with a different methodology, and are thereforenot directly comparable with other results of the study. Emissions of 33 kg CO₂-eq/kg are estimated for sheep meat from New Zealand, 80 or 48 kg CO₂-eq/kg for beef from Brazil, including or excluding emissions from land use change, respectively, and 1.2 kg CO₂-eql/kg for chicken from Brazil. However, the estimate of land use change (LUC) related emissions is highly uncertain and must be used with extreme caution. The reason for the high GHG  emissions from Brazilian beef – even without considering LUC emissions –is the low productivity of Brazilian beef compared with sheep in New Zealand.
• Technological emission reduction measures may be able to reduce emissions from livestock  production systems by 15-19%. Data for emission reductions are available mainly for NH₃ emissions, and are associated with high uncertainty; they often lead to an increase in GHG emissions, for example through pollution swapping (manure management and manure application measures), or through increased emissions for fertilizer manufacture (urea substitution).
• A reduced grazing intensity has complex and multiple effects which could not be comprehensively covered within this study. The results obtained indicate a small increase in emissions arising from reduced grazing due to the different digestibility of grass that is grazed and grass that is cut and fed to housed animals. Only anaerobic digestion shows a positive reduction in GHG  emissions by around 60 Mt CO₂-eq.
• For the prospective analysis of the EU livestock sector, the reference scenario indicates a trend driven reduction in GHG emissions for EU-27 of -6.8% in CO₂-eq in the year 2020 compared to the reference year 2004. The four defined GHG emission abatement policy scenarios could be designed to almost achieve the reduction goal of 20% emission reduction compared to the reference year. The emission reduction effects per country in each scenario are quite different from the EU-27 average, depending on the production level and the composition of the agricultural activities. In all policy scenarios the largest decreases in agricultural activities are projected to take place at beef meat activities. The modelling exercise reveals that including emission leakage in the calculation diminishes the effectiveness of emissions reduction in the EU due to a shift of emissions from the EU to the rest of the world (mainly as a result of higher net imports of feed and animal products).
• The intensification of agriculture in the second half of the 20th century has contributed to biodiversity decline and loss throughout Europe, major factors being pollution and habitat fragmentation and loss. Major impacts from animal production are linked to an excess of reactive nitrogen. On the other hand, many habitats important for biodiversity conservation are inherently linked to livestock production. Grazing is critical for maintaining many of Europe’s cultural  landscapes and sustaining rural communities.
• The GGELS project calculated, for the first time, detailed product-based emissions of main livestock  products (meat, milk and eggs) according to a cradle-to-gate life-cycle assessment at regional detail  for the whole EU-27. Total emissions of European livestock production amount to 9.1% of total  GHG emissions estimated in the national GHG inventories or 12.8% if land use and land use change emissions are included. This number is lower than the 18% value estimated in the FAO’s Livestock’s Long Shadow  but it has to be kept in mind that:
  • GGELS estimates are only related to the EU, FAO results to the whole world,
  • CAPRI estimates generally find GHG  emissions from agricultural activities to be about 21% lower GHG than the UNFCCC inventory aprpoach,
  • No other sector in this comparison is estimated on a product basis, and
  • Post-farm gate emissions are not considered in GGELS. Uncertainties are high and could not be quantified in the present study. In particular, good data for the quantification of land use and land use change emissions are lacking, but there is also high uncertainty around emission factors and farm production methods such as the share of manure management systems.