The University of Oxford's report on aviation entitled Predict and decide: Aviation, climate change and UK policy discusses the environmental implications of current growth trends and government policy on aviation and argues that our climate change targets cannot be met without controlling demand.
This report points out that 'even at the lower end of the forecast range, carbon dioxide emissions from aviation are set to reach 17 million tonnes of carbon (MtC) by 2050. The higher end of the range is 44 MtC.
Meanwhile, the UK is attempting to limit the carbon emissions of all its activities to 65 MtC by this date. This means that, in order to offset aviation’s emissions, all other sectors of the UK economy would need to reduce their emissions by 71%–87% instead of the currently planned 60% from 1990 levels.
There is no sign that this can or will happen: the existing 60% target is already extremely challenging.' (NB: note that there is growing agreement now that the 60% target, while ambitious, may not be sufficient to keep the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere below 450ppm – the point above which we are very likely to see global temperatures rise above 2°C. At this level of temperature increase we may well see the earth's climate mechanisms spiralling out of control).
The report concludes that we need to see:
- A change in strategic policy to give a presumption against the expansion of UK airport capacity
- A fiscal package to make flying less attractively priced
- A communication strategy that builds on existing public support for addressing aviation’s environmental impacts and ensures that the contribution of flying to climate change is understood and recognised
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