Is it too late to stop dangerous climate change?

Friends of the Earth UK has published two linked reports, which together address the question ‘Is it too late to stop dangerous climate change?’

1 Reckless gamblers: How politicians’ inaction is ramping up the risk of dangerous climate change. 

A report for policy makers by Friends of the Earth England, Wales & Northern Ireland, this report considers the latest science findings, conclude that global temperature increases must be kept below 1.5 degrees to avoid the most devastating effects of climate change, and identified what this means for future emissions. It finds that the EU would need to reduce its emissions by 60% by 2020 from 1990 levels, the United States would need to make even deeper cuts and China would need to peak its emissions by 2013 and then reduce them by 5% per year.  Key points as follows:

Recent climate science and risk analysis show that there is now a very small remaining safe level of greenhouse gas emissions compatible with preventing dangerous climate change.

• A 2 degrees temperature rise can no longer be considered “safe”; even 1.5 degrees carries with it major risks.
• Even a Global Carbon Budget of 1100 Gigatonnes of CO 2 equivalent from now to 2050, which would give a 75% chance of exceeding 1.5 degrees, and a 30% chance of exceeding 2 degrees, would require unprecedented emissions reductions which go far beyond those currently contemplated by politicians. Reducing risks further would require even tougher action.
• If dangerous climate change is to be averted it will require immediate and significant changes to how we fuel our economies in virtually all countries, it will require systemic action across all sectors of the economies of all countries.
• As leaders of countries with large historical and current emissions, politicians in developed countries must shoulder the blame for increasing the risk of dangerous climate change. They will need to make deep emissions reductions and provide hundreds of billions of dollars for developing countries to grow without carbon-intensive energy.
• Living within the small remaining global carbon budget, if shared out on an equal per capita basis between 2010 and 2050, would require reductions in emissions in developed countries of around 8-15 per cent per annum, immediate emissions reductions in some developing countries, an early peak and decline in emissions in others, and some countries would be able to continue to increase emissions from their very low baseline. These are just illustrative figures, not prescriptions but if one group of countries emits more than these amounts, it would require corresponding reductions in what other countries emit and the scope for this is now very limited. Achieving cuts in developing countries will require substantial financial and technology transfers from developed countries.
• Urgent research and debate needs to be carried out - alongside urgent action to reduce emissions - to identify exactly how to share out the remaining global carbon budget and whether these reductions are technically possible and, if not, whether approaches using negative emissions or even geo-engineering are possible or acceptable.

2 Just transition: Is a just transition to a low-carbon economy possible within safe global carbon limits?

 A report by Friends of the Earth England, Wales & Northern Ireland

This report identifies possible changes consistent with a carbon budget that gives a 70 per cent chance of not exceeding 2 degrees and a 25 per cent chance of avoiding a 1.5 degrees rise in temperatures over pre-industrial levels. Sharing a global carbon budget consistent with this risk means a carbon budget for the UK of 9 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (GtCO2e) for 2010-2049.

The Department of Energy and Climate Change’s 2050 Pathways model used and adapted in the report shows that it might be theoretically possible to get close to this 9 GtCO2e budget but only with the substantial use of unproven negative emissions technologies (NETs) to take carbon out of the atmosphere and Herculean efforts across all sectors. A pathway which would do this would include reducing UK energy demand by 30 per cent by 2030 from current levels, almost totally decarbonising electricity supply by 2025 through rapid growth in renewable energy, some use of carbon capture and storage (CCS) in natural gas electricity plants and the use of energy storage, interconnections and demand shifting. No coal would be used to produce electricity after 2025 and natural gas use would be cut by 75 per cent by 2030. Aviation, shipping, and freight transport accounts for the vast bulk of the remaining fossil fuel use in 2050.

The research shows that to get very close to the target carbon budget would also need very significant behavioural change, such as: reduced consumption of meat and dairy products primarily to make land available for biomass production but also to reduce agricultural emissions; a reduction in air miles flown; significant modal shift in surface transport; average temperature of homes maintained at 17°C; and reduced product consumption (eg widespread car sharing instead of individual ownership).

These behavioural changes go against current trends and to achieve them would require political and public will that is currently lacking. Significant technological innovation is also required. The main conclusion from this research is that the UK might, theoretically and with Herculean efforts, be able to make a transition to a low-carbon economy within the global carbon limit defined as ‘safe’ in this report; but this could only be done with the use of unproven NETs as well as mitigation.

To do all this requires enormous changes in every sector much faster than currently contemplated by politicians and the public. To do so without negative social-justice impacts will require a determined effort to introduce a just policy pathway to reduce inequalities. Achieving majority public support for the changes would also require massive efforts.