Historical Warnings of Future Food Insecurity with Unprecedented Seasonal Heat

This paper by Battisti D. S. and Naylor R. L. has been published in Science (Jan 2009, Vol. 323).

Higher growing season temperatures can have dramatic impacts on agricultural productivity, farm incomes, and food security. The authors used observational data and output from 23 global climate models to show a high probability (>90%) that growing season temperatures in the tropics and subtropics by the end of this century will exceed the most extreme seasonal temperatures recorded from 1900 to 2006.

In temperate regions, the hottest seasons on record will represent the future norm in many locations. They used historical examples to illustrate the magnitude of damage to food systems caused by extreme seasonal heat and show that these short-run events could become long term trends without sufficient investments in adaptation.