The Committee on Climate Change has published its report Meeting the UK aviation target: options for reducing emissions to 2050.
It says that aviation policy should be based on the assumption that demand growth between now and 2050 cannot exceed 60% if the UK is to meet the Government's target that aviation emissions in 2050 must not exceed 2005 levels.
The report concludes that fuel efficiency and operational improvements are likely to result in a 30% reduction in carbon emissions per seat km flown and that sustainable biofuels could account for 10% of aviation fuel use in 2050.
Faster technological improvements are possible, but unless and until they are achieved, it is not prudent to assume that demand increases of more than 60% are compatible with the target.
The report finds that on a "business as usual" path UK air passenger demand would grow over 200% by 2050, reflecting the high income elasticity of demand. This would not be compatible with meeting the UK's aviation or wider economy emissions targets.
See comments from Friends of the Earth, Greenpeace, the Aviation Environment Federation, and the Confederation of British Industry.
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