Groundwater exploitation across the world is causing land degradation and hunger, but stopping it without complementary policies would also undermine food security, the study finds. It explores five scenarios and finds that increasing efficient use of rain, investment in agricultural R&D would mitigate the effects of ending groundwater exploitation. Eating less animal products in high income countries would enhance this further.
Abstract
Groundwater development is key to accelerating agricultural growth and to achieving food security in a climate crisis. However, the rapid increase in groundwater exploitation over the past four decades has resulted in depletion and degradation, particularly in regions already facing acute water scarcity, with potential irreversible impacts for food security and economic prosperity. Using a climate–water–food systems modelling framework, we develop exploratory scenarios and find that halting groundwater depletion without complementary policy actions would adversely affect food production and trade, increase food prices and grow the number of people at risk of hunger by 26 million by 2050. Supportive policy interventions in food and water systems such as increasing the effective use of precipitation and investments in agricultural research and development could mitigate most negative effects of sustainable groundwater use on food security. In addition, changing preferences of high-income countries towards less-meat-based diets would marginally alleviate pressures on food price. To safeguard the ability of groundwater systems to realize water and food security objectives amidst climate challenges, comprehensive measures encompassing improved water management practices, advancements in seed technologies and appropriate institutions will be needed.
Reference
Perez, N., Singh, V., Ringler, C. et al. Ending groundwater overdraft without affecting food security. Nat Sustain (2024). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-024-01376-w
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