Australian report on food supply scenarios

A report has been published focusing on food supply scenarios in the Australian state of Victoria.

The Victorian Food Supply Scenarios project was a 12-month research project funded by VicHealth and undertaken by the Victorian Eco-Innovation Lab at the University of Melbourne, in partnership with the CSIRO, Deakin University and the Victorian Department of Planning and Community Development.

This project has developed and demonstrated a new methodology to link land and resource use with availability of a nutritionally adequate food supply for the population.

It uses different scenarios to explore how resource allocation and management could impact on the availability of quantities and variety of foods required for a nutritious diet. These scenarios explore different levels of: greenhouse gas emission reduction; the degree and type of government involvement in markets; and the scale of solutions pursued (i.e. small local or large global).

It has built the capability of the CSIRO stocks and flows model as a platform for on-going 'what-if' investigation of Victorian and Australian food supply security.

It finds that:

• All foods are not created equal – by considering requirements for a nutritious diet, rather the total ‘food’ commodities or production, tensions in Victoria and Australia’s food supply are quickly revealed
• There is no free lunch – many of the actions undertaken to secure the health of waterways, reduce emissions, reduce oil dependency will impact on food availability. Resolving tensions in one area inevitably impacts on other areas
• Market forces allocate resources – they do not make them exist. The scenarios allowed for major technology and efficiency improvements in agriculture and across the economy, but large tensions remain. Regardless of how high the prices for key resources become, the resources are ultimately finite and therefore cannot infinitely deliver more food and energy. Physical resource limits have serious implications for the assumed feasibility of continued economic growth.